The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 against the spread, including three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to think so. At least in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market too. Keep in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most love from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke with several bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very highly regarded gamer."
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Despite the fact that reputable cash has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public gamblers are piling on Texas.
"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We chatted with multiple bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has sneaked up slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at a lot of sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be shocked if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, but I currently invite any Boise State cash."
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Ohio State got the Oregon second opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before reputable cash pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A slightly higher majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come .
"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has actually gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the biggest relocation of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over up until now.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen significant buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
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The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Simply put, the wagering action.
Even though Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Being Available In On Texas'
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